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NY

NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (NYMT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • NYMT reported a GAAP net loss to common of $(41.8)M and $(0.46) EPS in Q4, as higher benchmark rates drove $131.6M of unrealized losses, partially offset by $92.0M of hedge gains; adjusted net interest income improved sequentially to $32.6M and net interest spread widened 5 bps to 1.37% .
  • Book value per share fell 5.6% QoQ to $9.28 and adjusted book value (ABV) declined 4.8% to $10.35; economic return on ABV was (2.94)%, while the $0.20 dividend was maintained .
  • Deployment remained active: $362.8M of Agency RMBS and $542.3M of residential loans purchased, plus a residential loan securitization yielding ~$292.9M net proceeds; company and portfolio recourse leverage ended at 3.0x and 2.9x, respectively .
  • Management emphasized recurring earnings growth and said recurring earnings are “getting close to aligning” with the $0.20 dividend; early Q1 commentary indicated ABV up ~1–2% quarter-to-date, and the Board extended large buyback authorizations, a potential catalyst given shares trade below ABV .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Adjusted net interest income rose to $32.6M (from $28.7M in Q3) on portfolio growth in Agency RMBS and BPL loans; net interest spread improved 5 bps QoQ to 1.37% as financing costs fell with securitization and lower base rates .
    • Strong capital deployment and funding: $362.8M Agency RMBS and $542.3M loans purchased; completed a loan securitization with ~$292.9M net proceeds; subsequent unsecured notes and securitization further bolstered flexibility .
    • Multifamily JV wind-down advanced: sold five multifamily assets in Q4, lowering real estate losses; CFO highlighted progress in reducing the drag and lowering portfolio operating expenses by ~$1.5M QoQ .
    • “Adjusted interest income rose 11% for the fourth quarter, contributing to year-over-year growth in adjusted interest income of 60%,” CEO said, underscoring the strategy to expand recurring income .
  • What Went Wrong

    • GAAP results pressured by marks: $131.6M unrealized losses as rates rose (impacting Agency RMBS, residential loans, SLST), partly offset by $92.0M derivative gains; realized losses of $9.9M on foreclosed properties and NPL sales .
    • Book value and ABV declined: BV/share down to $9.28 (−5.6% QoQ) and ABV/share to $10.35 (−4.8% QoQ), driving a quarterly economic return on ABV of (2.94)% .
    • Leverage drifted higher with deployment: company recourse leverage to 3.0x and portfolio recourse leverage to 2.9x (from 2.6x and 2.5x in Q3) .

Financial Results

Note: NYMT reports “Interest income” (REIT top-line proxy) rather than conventional “Revenue.”

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Interest income ($M)$78.789 $90.775 $108.361 $118.253
Net interest income ($M)$16.800 $19.044 $20.237 $26.711
Net (loss)/income to common ($M)$31.465 $(26.028) $32.410 $(41.828)
Basic EPS ($)$0.35 $(0.29) $0.36 $(0.46)
Yield on avg interest earning assets (%)6.21% 6.46% 6.69% 6.57%
Net interest spread (%)1.02% 1.33% 1.32% 1.37%
Book value per share ($)$11.31 $9.69 $9.83 $9.28
Adjusted book value per share ($)$12.66 $11.02 $10.87 $10.35

Segment adjusted net interest income (non-GAAP)

Segment Adjusted NII ($M)Q3 2024Q4 2024
Single-Family$30.936 $34.225
Multi-Family$2.699 $2.683
Corporate/Other$(4.945) $(4.357)
Total$28.690 $32.551

Key operating KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024
Dividends per common share ($)$0.20 $0.20
Economic return on ABV (%)0.45% (2.94)%
Company recourse leverage (x)2.6x 3.0x
Portfolio recourse leverage (x)2.5x 2.9x
Agency RMBS purchases ($M)$372.2 $362.8
Residential loan purchases ($M)$624.2 $542.3
Securitization net proceeds ($M)~$235.8 ~$292.9

Drivers this quarter

  • Higher rates into year-end widened Agency and loan marks (unrealized losses), while hedges gained; NII improved on portfolio growth and better funding mix .
  • Net loss from real estate improved sequentially on asset sales/deconsolidations; portfolio operating costs fell QoQ .

Guidance Changes

Metric/ItemPeriodPreviousCurrentChange
Common dividend per shareQ4 2024$0.20 (Q3’24) $0.20 declared Maintained
Recurring earnings vs dividend2025 outlook“Getting close to aligning” with $0.20 dividend (CFO) Qualitative positive
G&A run-rate2025~$11–$11.5M per quarter (CFO) New run-rate disclosure
Share repurchase authorizationsThrough 3/31/2026Expiring 3/31/2025Extended; $189.7M common and $97.6M preferred remaining Extended

No formal quantitative guidance for revenues, margins, tax, or segment targets was provided in Q4 materials .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Q-2)Q3 2024 (Q-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Macro/rates & spreadsPositioning for easing cycle; selective Agency adds; emphasize liquidity and hedging Agency spreads range-bound; continued deployment Rates rose into YE; unrealized losses; hedges offset; remain constructive on Agencies entering easing cycle Mixed: near-term headwind, medium-term tailwind
Portfolio rotation to recurring incomeRotating from total return to current cash income; rising adjusted interest income EPS up on rotation; higher adjusted NII Adjusted NII and spread improved QoQ; reiterated focus on recurring income Improving
Securitizations & fundingRated BPL-bridge securitization; baby bonds issued; pursue nonrecourse term funding Continued loan/bond re-securitizations Q4 loan securitization; subsequent unsecured notes; securitization in Feb’25 Positive momentum
Dividend sustainabilityAim to align recurring earnings with dividend over time Dividend maintained “Getting close to aligning” recurring earnings with $0.20 dividend Improving alignment
Multifamily JV equity wind-downJV equity becoming immaterial; ongoing sales plan JV sales gains; drag persists but shrinking Five assets sold in Q4; four remaining; FL assets being marketed; TX assets improving occupancy Wind-down advancing
Leverage & liquidityLow recourse leverage; maintain flexibility Recourse leverage 2.6x Recourse leverage 3.0x with Agency ramp; liquidity supports growth Higher but managed

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and earnings trajectory: “The Company’s portfolio grew by $2.2 billion, or 44%... As a result, adjusted interest income rose 11% for the fourth quarter, contributing to year-over-year growth in adjusted interest income of 60%” (CEO) .
  • Valuation and capital returns: “NYMT shares traded at a 41% discount to adjusted book value at year-end… $388 million of book value or $4.29 per share potential upside to year-end market capitalization,” with further upside from discounts-to-par in assets (CEO, prepared remarks) .
  • Earnings drivers: “Our net interest spread has shown improvement... increasing by 5 basis points in the quarter… our interest rate swaps… reducing our average financing cost by 38 basis points for the quarter” (CFO) .
  • Dividend path: “We are getting close to aligning with our current dividend in terms of recurring earnings” (CFO, Q&A) .
  • Portfolio mix: Agency RMBS at $3.1B market value (42% of assets); expect continued growth given attractive spreads into a potential easing cycle (President) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Normalized/recurring earnings: Management expects recurring earnings to align with the $0.20 dividend as rotation completes and deployment continues (CFO) .
  • Liquidity deployment: Plan to deploy excess liquidity across Agencies and short-duration residential credit, balancing rate and credit risks with target returns in mid-teens range for Agencies post-normalization (CEO) .
  • G&A outlook: Run-rate G&A guided to ~$11–$11.5M per quarter, with opportunities to further reduce costs (CFO) .
  • Book value trend: As of the call week, ABV up ~1–2% QTD in Q1’25 (President) .
  • Multifamily JV exit timing: Two Florida assets (≈$19M equity) on market; two Texas assets (~$1.3M equity) improving occupancy before sale later in 2025 (CEO) .
  • Allocation tilt: Expect higher allocation to Agency RMBS versus single-family mortgage loans as mezzanine portfolio pays down (CEO) .
  • Securitized debt calls/re-lever: Several callable deals; will evaluate call-and-relever economics deal-by-deal (President) .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus (EPS/revenue) for Q4 2024 was unavailable via our SPGI mapping for NYMT at the time of analysis; therefore, we cannot provide estimate comparisons this quarter. We will update when S&P mapping becomes available.
  • Target price/consensus recommendation not cited given the same data limitation.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term GAAP pressure, but core earnings vector improving: Despite $(0.46) EPS on marks, adjusted NII rose and net interest spread widened; if rates stabilize/fall, marks should moderate while NII benefits from deployment and funding mix .
  • Book value sensitivity to rates remains the swing factor; hedges mitigated some pain in Q4; early Q1 ABV up ~1–2% suggests reversal potential if rates/spreads cooperate .
  • Capital deployment is active and diversified (Agencies + BPL loans), with ongoing securitizations and extended buybacks providing flexibility and potential stock support, especially at a ~41% discount to ABV at YE .
  • Dividend maintained at $0.20; management expects recurring earnings to align, supporting sustainability if NII momentum continues and portfolio drag from multifamily exits abates .
  • Leverage is rising with Agency ramp (3.0x recourse), but funding includes nonrecourse/securitized structures; monitor leverage trajectory and repo conditions into 2025 .
  • Watch catalysts: rate path (mark-to-market), Agency spread behavior, securitization execution, pace of multifamily JV exits, and any buyback activity given authorization extension .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

  • Q4 unrealized losses detail: $(99.2)M investment securities (largely Agency RMBS), $(45.6)M residential loans; offset by $91.954M derivative gains (mostly swaps) .
  • Q4 real estate net loss improved to $(5.9)M from $(7.5)M in Q3 on asset sales/deconsolidations; portfolio operating expenses declined QoQ .
  • Q4 ABV reconciliation: $937.4M total adjusted book value; ABV/share $10.35 (common shares outstanding ~90.575M) .